Germaneya 3–0 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi: Result & Stats

Germaneya

FT

3 – 0

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

8/25/2018

Third League - Southwest · Round 4Gradski stadion (Sapareva Banya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Germaneya44%

×Draw23%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GermaneyaExpected goals in this matchNadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.44

Germaneya

1.73

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.44

Germaneya creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 78 away

1.09

creates per match

1.09

1.79

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Germaneya

1.09

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.09

allows per match

Germaneya

1.79

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germaneya+0.00on par

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germaneya ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Germaneya or draw

68%

Germaneya or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

77%

Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

56%

Winning margin

Germaneya wins by 2+

23%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Germaneya 1+ goals

82%

Germaneya 2+ goals

52%

Germaneya 3+ goals

25%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

76%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

42%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Germaneya (draw refunded)

58%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germaneya at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germaneya attack 1.09 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Germaneya defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Germaneya scores more

44%

level

23%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

32%

Germaneya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Germaneya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff