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Gerena vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio José Juan Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gerena40%
×Draw27%
Xerez Deportivo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
1.28
Xerez Deportivo
1.14

Gerena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 43 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
67%
Gerena or Xerez Deportivo
73%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
60%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
18%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
72%
Gerena 2+ goals
37%
Gerena 3+ goals
14%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
32%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
55%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.28

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gerena scores more
40%
level
27%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
33%

Gerena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gerena vs Xerez Deportivo

Xerez Deportivo beat Gerena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio José Juan Romero in Gerena.