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Gerena vs Recreativo Huelva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25Estadio Leonardo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Gerena42%
×Draw27%
Recreativo Huelva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
1.33
Recreativo Huelva
1.09

Gerena creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
Recreativo Huelva
1.24

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
Recreativo Huelva
1.15

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
69%
Gerena or Recreativo Huelva
73%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
58%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
19%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
74%
Gerena 2+ goals
38%
Gerena 3+ goals
15%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
66%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
30%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
58%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.33

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.24 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gerena scores more
42%
level
27%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
31%

Gerena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Gerena 1–2 Recreativo Huelva

Recreativo Huelva beat Gerena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Leonardo Ramos in Sevilla.