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Gerena vs Ayamonte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ayamonte
Ayamonte
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Centro Deportivo Antonio Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gerena52%
×Draw26%
Ayamonte22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
1.52
Ayamonte
0.88

Gerena creates 73% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 32 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
Ayamonte
0.81

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
Ayamonte
1.53

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
Ayamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Ayamonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
78%
Gerena or Ayamonte
74%
Draw or Ayamonte
48%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
27%
Ayamonte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
78%
Gerena 2+ goals
45%
Gerena 3+ goals
20%
Ayamonte 1+ goals
59%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
22%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
71%
Ayamonte (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Ayamonte away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Ayamonte defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ayamonte attack 0.81 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gerena scores more
52%
level
26%
Ayamonte scores more
22%

Gerena at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Gerena 1–0 Ayamonte

Gerena beat Ayamonte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Antonio Puerta in Sevilla.