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Gerena vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
1/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio Leonardo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Gerena56%
×Draw24%
Atlético Espeleño20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
1.71
Atlético Espeleño
0.93

Gerena creates 84% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 49 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
80%
Gerena or Atlético Espeleño
76%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
44%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
31%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
82%
Gerena 2+ goals
51%
Gerena 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
73%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gerena scores more
56%
level
24%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
20%

Gerena at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gerena vs Atlético Espeleño

Atlético Espeleño beat Gerena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Leonardo Ramos in Sevilla.