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Gerasdorf Stammersdorf vs Post — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
CANC
21:00
Post
Post
5/9/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 24Sportplatz Gerasdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf53%
×Draw21%
Post26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
2.11
Post
1.41

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 43 away

creates per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.43
Post
1.12

allows per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.69
Post
2.79

finishing

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf+0.00on par
Post+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf ↓

Post →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or draw
74%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or Post
79%
Draw or Post
47%

Winning margin

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf wins by 2+
32%
Post wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1+ goals
88%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2+ goals
62%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3+ goals
35%
Post 1+ goals
76%
Post 2+ goals
41%
Post 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf (draw refunded)
68%
Post (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.69 · 75 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf attack 1.43 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.11

Post attack 1.12 + Gerasdorf Stammersdorf defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf scores more
53%
level
21%
Post scores more
26%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gerasdorf Stammersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf vs Post — Match Preview

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf face Post on May 9, 2021 in this Landesliga - Wien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf host Post at Sportplatz Gerasdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.