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Gerasdorf Stammersdorf vs Mannswörth — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
FT
3 – 2
Mannswörth
Mannswörth
6/1/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 30Sportplatz Gerasdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf50%
×Draw22%
Mannswörth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
2.00
Mannswörth
1.46

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 59 away

creates per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.43
Mannswörth
1.24

allows per match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.69
Mannswörth
2.58

finishing

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf+0.00on par
Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf ↓

Mannswörth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or draw
72%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf or Mannswörth
78%
Draw or Mannswörth
50%

Winning margin

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf wins by 2+
29%
Mannswörth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1+ goals
86%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2+ goals
59%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3+ goals
32%
Mannswörth 1+ goals
77%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
43%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf (draw refunded)
64%
Mannswörth (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.69 · 75 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf attack 1.43 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.00

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + Gerasdorf Stammersdorf defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf scores more
50%
level
22%
Mannswörth scores more
28%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gerasdorf Stammersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3–2 Mannswörth

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf beat Mannswörth 3-2 in Landesliga - Wien on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Gerasdorf in Gerasdorf.