Georgia W 3–0 North Macedonia W: Result & Stats

Georgia W

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

North Macedonia W

2/25/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Mikheil Meskhi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Georgia W85%

×Draw12%

North Macedonia W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia WExpected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.33

Georgia W

2.55

North Macedonia W

0.33

Georgia W creates 673% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.25

creates per match

0.29

0.38

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Georgia W

2.25

North Macedonia W

0.29

allows per match

Georgia W

0.38

North Macedonia W

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia W+0.00on par

North Macedonia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia W ↓

North Macedonia W →

0–06%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–016%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–010%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Georgia W or draw

97%

Georgia W or North Macedonia W

88%

Draw or North Macedonia W

15%

Winning margin

Georgia W wins by 2+

64%

North Macedonia W wins by 2+

Team goals

Georgia W 1+ goals

92%

Georgia W 2+ goals

72%

Georgia W 3+ goals

46%

North Macedonia W 1+ goals

28%

North Macedonia W 2+ goals

North Macedonia W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Georgia W (draw refunded)

96%

North Macedonia W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Georgia W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

North Macedonia W away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Georgia W attack 2.25 + North Macedonia W defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.55

North Macedonia W attack 0.29 + Georgia W defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

Georgia W scores more

85%

level

12%

North Macedonia W scores more

Georgia W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Georgia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Georgia W vs North Macedonia W

Georgia W beat North Macedonia W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhi 2 in Tbilisi.

Georgia W vs North Macedonia W — Friendlies Women 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Georgia W vs North Macedonia W