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Georgia W vs Armenia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Georgia W
Georgia W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Armenia W
Armenia W
N. Pasikashvili 81'
T. Bakradze 64'
K. Tchkonia 45+2'
N. Danelia 32'
T. Ambalia 24'
7/13/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Georgia W82%
×Draw13%
Armenia W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia W
2.50
Armenia W
0.44

Georgia W creates 468% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Georgia W
2.25
Armenia W
0.50

allows per match

Georgia W
0.38
Armenia W
2.75

finishing

Georgia W+0.00on par
Armenia W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia W ↓

Armenia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Georgia W or draw
95%
Georgia W or Armenia W
87%
Draw or Armenia W
18%

Winning margin

Georgia W wins by 2+
60%
Armenia W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Georgia W 1+ goals
92%
Georgia W 2+ goals
71%
Georgia W 3+ goals
45%
Armenia W 1+ goals
36%
Armenia W 2+ goals
7%
Armenia W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Georgia W (draw refunded)
95%
Armenia W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Armenia W away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia W attack 2.25 + Armenia W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

Armenia W attack 0.50 + Georgia W defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Georgia W scores more
82%
level
13%
Armenia W scores more
5%

Georgia W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Georgia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
T. Ambalia
32'
N. Danelia
45+2'
K. Tchkonia
46'
S. Gasviani← S. Gasviani
49'
N. Pasikashvili
54'
A. Cheminava
55'
N. Der-Megerdichian
58'
L. Ghazaryan
62'
T. Sukhashvili← T. Sukhashvili
64'
T. Bakradze
68'
L. Kostanyan← L. Kostanyan
69'
N. Bukhrikidze← N. Bukhrikidze
69'
M. Bebia← M. Bebia
71'
M. Sayadyan← M. Sayadyan
81'
N. Pasikashvili
83'
N. Gujabidze← N. Gujabidze
83'
M. Tsiskarishvili← M. Tsiskarishvili
83'
A. Jojua← A. Jojua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Georgia W vs Armenia W

Georgia W beat Armenia W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on July 13, 2023.

Goals: T. Ambalia (24'), N. Danelia (32'), K. Tchkonia (45+2'), T. Bakradze (64'), N. Pasikashvili (81').

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Tbilisi.