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Randers Freja vs Vatanspor — Denmark Series - Group 4 2016

Randers Freja
Randers Freja
FT
1 – 3
Vatanspor
Vatanspor
3/25/2017Denmark Series - Group 4Denmark Series - Group 4 · Round 15BioNutria Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Randers Freja19%
×Draw18%
Vatanspor62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randers Freja
1.33
Vatanspor
2.50

Vatanspor creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Randers Freja
1.67
Vatanspor
2.00

allows per match

Randers Freja
3.00
Vatanspor
1.00

finishing

Randers Freja+0.00on par
Vatanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers Freja ↓

Vatanspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Randers Freja or draw
38%
Randers Freja or Vatanspor
82%
Draw or Vatanspor
81%

Winning margin

Randers Freja wins by 2+
8%
Vatanspor wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Randers Freja 1+ goals
74%
Randers Freja 2+ goals
38%
Randers Freja 3+ goals
15%
Vatanspor 1+ goals
92%
Vatanspor 2+ goals
71%
Vatanspor 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Randers Freja (draw refunded)
23%
Vatanspor (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers Freja at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Vatanspor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers Freja attack 1.67 + Vatanspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vatanspor attack 2.00 + Randers Freja defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Randers Freja scores more
19%
level
18%
Vatanspor scores more
62%

Vatanspor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vatanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Denmark Series - Group 4: Randers Freja 1–3 Vatanspor

Vatanspor beat Randers Freja 3-1 in Denmark Series - Group 4 on March 25, 2017.

The match was played at BioNutria Park Randers in Randers.