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Georgia vs Rep. Of Ireland — Euro Championship 2024

Georgia
Georgia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
10/12/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Georgia50%
×Draw34%
Rep. Of Ireland16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
1.04
Rep. Of Ireland
0.45

Georgia creates 131% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Georgia
0.88
Rep. Of Ireland
0.40

allows per match

Georgia
0.50
Rep. Of Ireland
1.20

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
84%
Georgia or Rep. Of Ireland
66%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
50%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
20%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
65%
Georgia 2+ goals
28%
Georgia 3+ goals
9%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
36%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
8%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
76%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 0.88 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.40 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Georgia scores more
50%
level
34%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
16%

Georgia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. DuffyRep. Of IrelandRep. Of Ireland · D
8.0

Match Events

65'
Glenn Whelan
73'
L. Shengelia← G. Kvilitaia
73'
A. Browne← C. Robinson
79'
E. Lobjanidze← T. Okriashvili
79'
A. Connolly← J. Collins
87'
Gia Grigalava
90'
G. Aburjania← O. Kiteishvili
90+3'
D. Williams← C. Hourihane

Possession

55%Georgia

Shots

14Georgia

Pass accuracy

53%Georgia

Statistics

GeorgiaRep.
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots7
5Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots7
0On Target3
8Off Target3
6Blocked1
6Inside Box6
8Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
485Total Passes383
375Accurate Passes266
77%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Euro Championship: Georgia 0–0 Rep. Of Ireland

Georgia and Rep. Of Ireland drew 0-0 in Euro Championship on October 12, 2019.

Georgia controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.