Georgia 6–1 Mongolia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Georgia

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mongolia

B. Zivzivadze 90+1'

G. Beridze 88'

S. Lobzhanidze 70'

G. Chakvetadze 58', 56'

D. Volkovi 15'

B. Baljinnyam 31'

3/25/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Batumi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia73%

×Draw18%

Mongolia8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchMongolia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.53

Georgia

2.05

Mongolia

0.53

Georgia creates 287% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.10

creates per match

0.57

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Georgia

2.10

Mongolia

0.57

allows per match

Georgia

0.50

Mongolia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par

Mongolia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Mongolia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Georgia or draw

92%

Georgia or Mongolia

82%

Draw or Mongolia

27%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+

47%

Mongolia wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals

87%

Georgia 2+ goals

61%

Georgia 3+ goals

33%

Mongolia 1+ goals

41%

Mongolia 2+ goals

10%

Mongolia 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)

90%

Mongolia (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Mongolia away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 2.10 + Mongolia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Mongolia attack 0.57 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Georgia scores more

73%

level

18%

Mongolia scores more

8%

Georgia at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. Volkovi

31'

B. Baljinnyam

46'

N. Kvekveskiri← G. Aburjania

46'

L. Gugeshashvili← G. Loria

46'

U. Erdenechimeg← D. Tuvshinjargal

56'

G. Chakvetadze

58'

G. Chakvetadze

60'

A. Dulguun

61'

G. Bat-Orgil← P. Bayartsengel

61'

U. Purevsuren← N. Artag

64'

B. Zivzivadze← G. Chakvetadze

64'

Z. Davitashvili← L. Gagnidze

64'

G. Sigua← G. Tsitaishvili

70'

S. Lobzhanidze

71'

G. Beridze← D. Volkovi

73'

T. Uuganbat← N. Baatartsogt

73'

K. Naranbaatar← T. Khurelbaatar

87'

B. Ganbat← A. Dulguun

88'

G. Beridze

90+1'

B. Zivzivadze

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GeorgiaMongolia

Overview

70%Possession30%

29Total Shots2

7Corners0

6Fouls9

Shots

29Total Shots2

14On Target2

10Off Target0

5Blocked0

Passing

70%Possession30%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

6Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0