Georgia 1–0 Latvia: Result & Stats

Georgia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia

Tornike Okriashvili 77' (pen)

9/9/2018

UEFA Nations League · League D - 2Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Georgia47%

×Draw26%

Latvia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchLatvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.03

Georgia

1.46

Latvia

1.03

Georgia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.92

creates per match

1.45

0.62

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Georgia

1.92

Latvia

1.45

allows per match

Georgia

0.62

Latvia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par

Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Latvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Georgia or draw

73%

Georgia or Latvia

74%

Draw or Latvia

53%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+

23%

Latvia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals

77%

Georgia 2+ goals

43%

Georgia 3+ goals

18%

Latvia 1+ goals

64%

Latvia 2+ goals

28%

Latvia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)

64%

Latvia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Latvia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 1.92 + Latvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Latvia attack 1.45 + Georgia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Georgia scores more

47%

level

26%

Latvia scores more

27%

Georgia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

Andris Vaņins

62'

Vjaceslav Isajevs

67'

Arturs Karasausks

72'

Valērijs Šabala← Vladislavs Gutkovskis

77'

Tornike OkriashviliPenalty

78'

Roberts Savalnieks← Ritvars Rugins

81'

Valeriane Gviliia← Tornike Okriashvili

81'

Deniss Rakels← Ivans Lukjanovs

85'

Giorgi Papunashvili← Giorgi Chakvetadze

90'

Jaba Kankava

90'

Davit Khotcholava← Valeri Qazaishvili

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GeorgiaLatvia

Overview

65%Possession35%

9Total Shots3

6Corners4

14Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots3

5On Target2

4Off Target1

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3