Georgia 2–2 Israel: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Georgia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Israel

K. Kvaratskhelia 54', 36'

O. Gandelman 64'

G. Mizrahi 60'

3/26/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalMikheil Meskhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia63%

×Draw22%

Israel15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchIsrael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.80

Georgia

1.90

Israel

0.80

Georgia creates 137% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.10

creates per match

1.10

0.50

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Georgia

2.10

Israel

1.10

allows per match

Georgia

0.50

Israel

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par

Israel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Israel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Georgia or draw

85%

Georgia or Israel

78%

Draw or Israel

37%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+

38%

Israel wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals

85%

Georgia 2+ goals

56%

Georgia 3+ goals

29%

Israel 1+ goals

55%

Israel 2+ goals

19%

Israel 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)

81%

Israel (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Israel away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 2.10 + Israel defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Israel attack 1.10 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Georgia scores more

63%

level

22%

Israel scores more

15%

Georgia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Eliel Peretz

36'

K. Kvaratskhelia

46'

O. Glazer← D. Peretz

54'

K. Kvaratskhelia↳ G. Mikautadze

56'

Z. Davitashvili← O. Kiteishvili

59'

O. Gandelman← D. Peretz

59'

D. Turgeman← T. Baribo

59'

G. Mizrahi← E. Dasa

60'

G. Mizrahi↳ E. Peretz

64'

O. Gandelman↳ O. Gloukh

71'

Y. Shua← G. Kanichowsky

74'

G. Guliashvili← G. Mikautadze

74'

G. Kvernadze← L. Gadrani

74'

V. Mamuchashvili← A. Mekvabishvili

77'

Georgiy Tsitaishvili

79'

I. Nachmias← N. Stoioanov

79'

S. Turiel← A. Khalaili

79'

Y. Cohen← R. Revivo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GeorgiaIsrael

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots10

6Corners7

11Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target3

2Off Target4

4Blocked3

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1