Georgia 1–0 Belarus: Result & Stats

Georgia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belarus

T. Okriashvili 7' (pen)

10/8/2020

Euro Championship · Qualifying Play-offs Path D - Semi-FinalsBoris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Georgia64%

×Draw24%

Belarus12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchBelarus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.55

Georgia

1.64

Belarus

0.55

Georgia creates 198% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

0.88

creates per match

0.60

0.50

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Georgia

0.88

Belarus

0.60

allows per match

Georgia

0.50

Belarus

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par

Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Belarus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Georgia or draw

88%

Georgia or Belarus

76%

Draw or Belarus

36%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+

36%

Belarus wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals

81%

Georgia 2+ goals

49%

Georgia 3+ goals

23%

Belarus 1+ goals

42%

Belarus 2+ goals

11%

Belarus 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)

84%

Belarus (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Belarus away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 0.88 + Belarus defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Belarus attack 0.60 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Georgia scores more

64%

level

24%

Belarus scores more

12%

Georgia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Tornike Okriashvili

Georgia · F

8.3

Match Events

7'

T. OkriashviliPenalty

33'

N. Naumov

38'

N. Kvekveskiri

46'

A. Khachaturyan← I. Maevskiy

53'

J. Kankava

63'

D. Podstrelov← D. Podstrelov

63'

E. Yablonski← M. Skavysh

65'

O. Kiteishvili← V. Gvilia

69'

Vako

70'

V. Lisakovich← D. Laptev

73'

M. Bordachev← K. Pechenin

82'

Vako← L. Shengelia

82'

O. Kakabadze← J. Tabidze

89'

T. Okriashvili← G. Kvilitaia

89'

K. Kvaratskhelia← S. Lobzhanidze

90+4'

G. Kvilitaia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GeorgiaBelarus

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots6

5Corners2

17Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots6

6On Target1

1Off Target4

0Blocked1

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

389Total Passes398

281Accurate Passes296

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0