Georgia U21 1–1 Northern Ireland U21

Georgia U21

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Northern Ireland U21

S. Kearney 7' (OG)

M. Orr 66'

9/9/2025

League #850 · Group Stage - 5Stadion Ramaz Shengelia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Georgia U2137%

×Draw26%

Northern Ireland U2137%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U21Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

Georgia U21

1.33

Northern Ireland U21

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Georgia U21

0.67

Northern Ireland U21

1.33

allows per match

Georgia U21

1.33

Northern Ireland U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U21+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U21 ↓

Northern Ireland U21 →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Georgia U21 or draw

63%

Georgia U21 or Northern Ireland U21

74%

Draw or Northern Ireland U21

63%

Winning margin

Georgia U21 wins by 2+

17%

Northern Ireland U21 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Georgia U21 1+ goals

74%

Georgia U21 2+ goals

38%

Georgia U21 3+ goals

15%

Northern Ireland U21 1+ goals

74%

Northern Ireland U21 2+ goals

38%

Northern Ireland U21 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Georgia U21 (draw refunded)

50%

Northern Ireland U21 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Georgia U21 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Northern Ireland U21 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U21 attack 0.67 + Northern Ireland U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Northern Ireland U21 attack 1.33 + Georgia U21 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Georgia U21 scores more

37%

level

26%

Northern Ireland U21 scores more

37%

Georgia U21 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Georgia U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

S. KearneyOwn goal

39'

S. Kharebashvili

40'

G. Tabatadze

55'

A. Basiladze← G. Tabatadze

65'

L. McStravick← A. Donnelly

66'

M. Orr

74'

J. Karseladze← D. Bukia

74'

N. Dadiani← L. Tsulukidze

74'

S. Gegiadze← D. Lordkipanidze

81'

C. O'Neill← E. Kenny

90'

P. Kelly

90+3'

L. McStravick

90+2'

D. Gotsiridze← G. Sigua

Georgia

Northern

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ramaz Svanadze

55'▲A. Basiladze←▼G. Tabatadze

74'▲J. Karseladze←▼D. Bukia

74'▲N. Dadiani←▼L. Tsulukidze

74'▲S. Gegiadze←▼D. Lordkipanidze

90+2'▲D. Gotsiridze←▼G. Sigua

Georgia U21 substitutes

12Kajaia2Karseladze11Gotsiridze14Basiladze16Kharebava17Giunashvili19Nadareishvili20Dadiani22Gegiadze

Manager: Thomas James Wright

65'▲L. McStravick←▼A. Donnelly

81'▲C. O'Neill←▼E. Kenny

Northern Ireland U21 substitutes

12Hurl14O'Neill15McStravick16Patterson17McCann18Graham19Turley21Inwood20Barr