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Shanghai Shenxin vs Wuhan Zall — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
3/11/2018League OneLeague One · Round 1Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin22%
×Draw22%
Wuhan Zall56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.08
Wuhan Zall
1.88

Wuhan Zall creates 74% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Wuhan Zall
1.73

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Wuhan Zall
1.00

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Wuhan Zall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
44%
Shanghai Shenxin or Wuhan Zall
78%
Draw or Wuhan Zall
78%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
8%
Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
66%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
29%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
10%
Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
85%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
56%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
28%
Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Wuhan Zall attack 1.73 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
22%
level
22%
Wuhan Zall scores more
56%

Wuhan Zall at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Wuhan Zall

Wuhan Zall beat Shanghai Shenxin 1-0 in League One on March 11, 2018.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai).