Georgia U19 2–1 Sweden U19: Result & Stats

Georgia U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sweden U19

S. Geguchadze 87'

G. Nikolaishvili 70'

N. Sernelius 30'

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Georgia U1935%

×Draw25%

Sweden U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Georgia U19

1.35

Sweden U19

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.29

1.58

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Georgia U19

1.00

Sweden U19

1.29

allows per match

Georgia U19

1.58

Sweden U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Georgia U19 or draw

61%

Georgia U19 or Sweden U19

75%

Draw or Sweden U19

65%

Winning margin

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

16%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Georgia U19 1+ goals

74%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

39%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

15%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

76%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

42%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U19 attack 1.00 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + Georgia U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Georgia U19 scores more

35%

level

25%

Sweden U19 scores more

39%

Sweden U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

N. Sernelius

59'

K. Jawla

61'

S. Samuyiwa← S. Sjöholm

63'

T. Odikadze← A. Turkia

70'

G. Gvasalia← L. Tsulaia

70'

G. Nikolaishvili

71'

K. Marrah← E. Pihlström

80'

N. Mohudin← K. Jawla

87'

S. Geguchadze

89'

S. Samushia

89'

L. Bubuteishvili← S. Geguchadze

90+6'

N. Sernelius

Georgia

Sweden

1

2

4

14

5

8

⚽

Sernelius

6

Jeppsson

10

Loukili

11

▼

Pihlström

7

▼

Sjöholm

9

▼

Jawla

1

Sauri

5

⚽

3

17

2

4

13

▼

Tsulaia

7

⚽

▼

Geguchadz

8

Berelidze

10

Samushia

18

▼

Turkia

Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

63'▲T. Odikadze←▼A. Turkia

70'▲G. Gvasalia←▼L. Tsulaia

89'▲L. Bubuteishvili←▼S. Geguchadze

Georgia U19 substitutes

14Odikadze20Gvasalia11Bubuteishvili19Mashava16Tkeshelashvili12Khelashvili15Dalakishvili9Salia6Surguladze

Manager: A. Pettersson

61'▲S. Samuyiwa←▼S. Sjöholm

71'▲K. Marrah←▼E. Pihlström

80'▲N. Mohudin←▼K. Jawla

Sweden U19 substitutes

17Samuyiwa20Marrah19Mohudin3Gashi15Nikko12Ramming16Anderson18Uhrström13Hilvenius

Match Recap: Georgia U19 vs Sweden U19

Georgia U19 beat Sweden U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2024.

Goals: N. Sernelius (30'), G. Nikolaishvili (70'), S. Geguchadze (87').

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.

Georgia U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Georgia U19 vs Sweden U19