Georgia U19 0–4 Spain U19: Result & Stats

Georgia U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Spain U19

Yanis Senhadji 86'

Miguel Carvalho 75'

Yarek Gasiorowski 57'

Dani Rodríguez 53'

11/21/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Georgia U1918%

×Draw22%

Spain U1960%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U19Expected goals in this matchSpain U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.88

Georgia U19

0.92

Spain U19

1.88

Spain U19 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

2.17

1.58

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Georgia U19

1.00

Spain U19

2.17

allows per match

Georgia U19

1.58

Spain U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U19 ↓

Spain U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Georgia U19 or draw

40%

Georgia U19 or Spain U19

78%

Draw or Spain U19

82%

Winning margin

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

6%

Spain U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Georgia U19 1+ goals

60%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

23%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

7%

Spain U19 1+ goals

85%

Spain U19 2+ goals

56%

Spain U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U19 attack 1.00 + Spain U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Spain U19 attack 2.17 + Georgia U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Georgia U19 scores more

18%

level

22%

Spain U19 scores more

60%

Spain U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

G. Gogsadze

46'

L. Sherozia← S. Avaliani

46'

N. Tsetskhladze← N. Chikovani

50'

Chema Andrés← Gerard Hernández

53'

J. Diaz

53'

Dani Rodríguez

57'

Yarek Gasiorowski

61'

M. Carvalho

65'

A. Mashava← A. Basiladze

65'

S. Samushia← G. Gogsadze

68'

Aingeru Olabarrieta← Siren Diao

68'

Rayane Belid← Kevin Sánchez

73'

T. Berelidze← S. Geguchadze

75'

A. Giunashvili

75'

Miguel Carvalho

79'

Víctor Moreno← Dani Rodríguez

79'

Yanis Senhadji← Peio Canales

83'

G. Sadgobelashvili

86'

Yanis Senhadji

Georgia

Spain

1

Martín

4

Boñar

14

Simo

5

⚽

Gasiorows

8

⚽

Carvalho

6

▼

Hernández

3

Díaz

10

⚽

▼

Rodríguez

18

▼

Canales

9

▼

Sánchez

12

▼

12

3

2

4

15

▼

Gogsadze

5

▼

Chikovani

14

Bukia

11

▼

Basiladze

13

Lordkipan

8

▼

Geguchadz

20

▼

Avaliani

Manager: V. Maisuradze

46'▲L. Sherozia←▼S. Avaliani

46'▲N. Tsetskhladze←▼N. Chikovani

65'▲A. Mashava←▼A. Basiladze

65'▲S. Samushia←▼G. Gogsadze

73'▲T. Berelidze←▼S. Geguchadze

Georgia U19 substitutes

9Sherozia17Tsetskhladze10Mashava7Samushia16Berelidze6Peikrishvili18Ninidze1Kurtanidze19Gobeshia

Manager: David Gordo

50'▲Chema Andrés←▼Gerard Hernández

68'▲Aingeru Olabarrieta←▼Siren Diao

68'▲Rayane Belid←▼Kevin Sánchez

79'▲Víctor Moreno←▼Dani Rodríguez

79'▲Yanis Senhadji←▼Peio Canales

Spain U19 substitutes

16Andrés17Olabarrieta7Belid11Moreno19Senhadji13González15Domínguez20Oláiz2Koke

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Georgia U19 0–4 Spain U19

Spain U19 beat Georgia U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 21, 2023.

Goals: Dani Rodríguez (53'), Yarek Gasiorowski (57'), Miguel Carvalho (75'), Yanis Senhadji (86').

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Tbilisi.

Georgia U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Georgia U19 0–4 Spain U19