Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Georgia U19 vs Russia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Georgia U19
Georgia U19
CANC
16:00
Russia U19
Russia U19
9/2/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 2Stade Municipal de l'Argenté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Georgia U1974%
×Draw17%
Russia U199%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia U19
2.33
Russia U19
0.67

Georgia U19 creates 248% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Georgia U19
4.00
Russia U19
1.00

allows per match

Georgia U19
0.33
Russia U19
0.67

finishing

Georgia U19+0.00on par
Russia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U19 ↓

Russia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Georgia U19 or draw
91%
Georgia U19 or Russia U19
83%
Draw or Russia U19
26%

Winning margin

Georgia U19 wins by 2+
51%
Russia U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Georgia U19 1+ goals
90%
Georgia U19 2+ goals
67%
Georgia U19 3+ goals
41%
Russia U19 1+ goals
49%
Russia U19 2+ goals
15%
Russia U19 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)
89%
Russia U19 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U19 at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Russia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U19 attack 4.00 + Russia U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Russia U19 attack 1.00 + Georgia U19 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Georgia U19 scores more
74%
level
17%
Russia U19 scores more
9%

Georgia U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Georgia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Georgia U19 host Russia U19

September 2, 2020: Georgia U19 take on Russia U19 in UEFA U19 Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Georgia U19 host Russia U19 at Stade Municipal de l'Argenté.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.