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Georgia U19 vs Moldova U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Georgia U19
Georgia U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Moldova U19
Moldova U19
11/18/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Georgia U1961%
×Draw22%
Moldova U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia U19
1.96
Moldova U19
0.96

Georgia U19 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Georgia U19
1.00
Moldova U19
0.33

allows per match

Georgia U19
1.58
Moldova U19
2.92

finishing

Georgia U19+0.00on par
Moldova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U19 ↓

Moldova U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Georgia U19 or draw
82%
Georgia U19 or Moldova U19
78%
Draw or Moldova U19
39%

Winning margin

Georgia U19 wins by 2+
36%
Moldova U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Georgia U19 1+ goals
86%
Georgia U19 2+ goals
58%
Georgia U19 3+ goals
31%
Moldova U19 1+ goals
62%
Moldova U19 2+ goals
25%
Moldova U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Moldova U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Moldova U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U19 attack 1.00 + Moldova U19 defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Moldova U19 attack 0.33 + Georgia U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Georgia U19 scores more
61%
level
22%
Moldova U19 scores more
18%

Georgia U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Georgia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Georgia U19 2 – 1 Moldova U19

Georgia U19 beat Moldova U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni in Tbilisi.