Georgia U19 1–3 Denmark U19: Result & Stats

Georgia U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Denmark U19

D. Gotsiridze 87'

G. Christensen 67'

F. Bundgaard 40'

O. Ross 37'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Georgia U1916%

×Draw21%

Denmark U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U19Expected goals in this matchDenmark U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

2.04

Georgia U19

0.92

Denmark U19

2.04

Denmark U19 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

1.58

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Georgia U19

1.00

Denmark U19

2.50

allows per match

Georgia U19

1.58

Denmark U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U19 ↓

Denmark U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Georgia U19 or draw

37%

Georgia U19 or Denmark U19

79%

Draw or Denmark U19

84%

Winning margin

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

5%

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Georgia U19 1+ goals

60%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

23%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

7%

Denmark U19 1+ goals

87%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

60%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Denmark U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U19 attack 1.00 + Denmark U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Denmark U19 attack 2.50 + Georgia U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Georgia U19 scores more

16%

level

21%

Denmark U19 scores more

63%

Denmark U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Fischer← O. Svendsen

37'

O. Ross

40'

F. Bundgaard

50'

W. Clem

59'

D. Ghurtskaia← G. Tabatadze

59'

G. Khabuliani← G. Bartia

67'

G. Christensen

68'

C. Horneman← G. Christensen

68'

S. Andersen← A. Lyng

68'

S. Ngabo← Z. Sertdemir

73'

D. Gotsiridze← J. Iobashvili

73'

L. Kalandadze← T. Gognadze

73'

T. Alibegashvili← M. Bagrationi

81'

P. Dorgu← P. Texel

87'

D. Gotsiridze

88'

D. Gotsiridze

Georgia

Denmark

1

Nielsen

4

▼

Texel

5

Mortensen

2

▼

Svendsen

3

Barslund

10

⚽

Bundgaard

8

▼

Sertdemir

7

▼

Lyng

6

Clem

20

⚽

▼

Christens

9

⚽

Ross

1

Beruashvi

4

Goglichid

8

▼

Bagration

5

Pirtakhia

21

▼

3

7

13

6

▼

Bartia

2

▼

Gognadze

10

▼

Iobashvil

Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

59'▲D. Ghurtskaia←▼G. Tabatadze

59'▲G. Khabuliani←▼G. Bartia

73'▲D. Gotsiridze←▼J. Iobashvili

73'▲L. Kalandadze←▼T. Gognadze

73'▲T. Alibegashvili←▼M. Bagrationi

Georgia U19 substitutes

20Ghurtskaia9Khabuliani11Gotsiridze17Kalandadze18Alibegashvili16Datuashvili12Makatsaria14Todua15Morchiladze

Manager: J. Olsen

24'▲M. Fischer←▼O. Svendsen

68'▲C. Horneman←▼G. Christensen

68'▲S. Andersen←▼A. Lyng

68'▲S. Ngabo←▼Z. Sertdemir

81'▲P. Dorgu←▼P. Texel

Denmark U19 substitutes

15Fischer11Horneman14Andersen17Ngabo13Dorgu19Bøndergaard18Enggård12Storm16Lykke

Match Recap: Georgia U19 vs Denmark U19

Denmark U19 beat Georgia U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 21, 2022.

Goals: O. Ross (37'), F. Bundgaard (40'), G. Christensen (67'), D. Gotsiridze (87').

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.

Georgia U19 vs Denmark U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Georgia U19 vs Denmark U19