Georgia U17 2–2 Wales U17: Result & Stats

Georgia U17

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wales U17

G. Jamarauli 72'

S. Avdoevi 23'

L. Papirnyk 90'

J. Norris 20'

4/16/2026

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia U1720%

×Draw19%

Wales U1761%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U17Expected goals in this matchWales U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.37

Georgia U17

1.29

Wales U17

2.37

Wales U17 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

0.90

creates per match

2.44

2.30

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Georgia U17

0.90

Wales U17

2.44

allows per match

Georgia U17

2.30

Wales U17

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U17+0.00on par

Wales U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U17 ↓

Wales U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Georgia U17 or draw

39%

Georgia U17 or Wales U17

81%

Draw or Wales U17

80%

Winning margin

Georgia U17 wins by 2+

8%

Wales U17 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Georgia U17 1+ goals

72%

Georgia U17 2+ goals

37%

Georgia U17 3+ goals

14%

Wales U17 1+ goals

91%

Wales U17 2+ goals

68%

Wales U17 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)

25%

Wales U17 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U17 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Wales U17 away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U17 attack 0.90 + Wales U17 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wales U17 attack 2.44 + Georgia U17 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Georgia U17 scores more

20%

level

19%

Wales U17 scores more

61%

Wales U17 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wales U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. Norris

23'

S. Avdoevi↳ G. Lagvilava

46'

S. Sharvashidze← A. Kuntchulia

46'

N. Potskhveria← A. Getiashvili

54'

G. Jamarauli← S. Mikautadze

59'

A. Walls← A. Walker

59'

L. Papirnyk← A. Lorimer

62'

L. Kaladze← G. Gergedava

72'

G. Jamarauli↳ S. Sharvashidze

75'

G. Robinson← H. Daniel

76'

A. Jones← R. Beckwith

83'

A. Demir← N. Khatoyan

83'

J. Itsindo← J. Norris

87'

88'

90+1'

90+1'

90+2'

90'

Georgia

Wales

1

2

4

5

13

▼

Daniel

15

▼

Beckwith

8

▼

Walker

11

Salter

7

⚽

▼

Norris

9

▼

10

12

2

3

4

▼

Getiashvi

13

Tsiramua

19

▼

Gergedava

17

⚽

Avdoevi

10

▼

Khatoyan

7

▼

Kuntchuli

6

A

Lagvilava

9

▼

Mikautadz

Manager: G. Chitauri

46'▲S. Sharvashidze←▼A. Kuntchulia

46'▲N. Potskhveria←▼A. Getiashvili

54'▲G. Jamarauli←▼S. Mikautadze

62'▲L. Kaladze←▼G. Gergedava

83'▲A. Demir←▼N. Khatoyan

Georgia U17 substitutes

1Tchelidze5Lolua8Sharvashidze11Gazdeliani14Demir15Potskhveria16Potskhveria18Jamarauli20Kaladze

Manager: W. Hatswell

59'▲A. Walls←▼A. Walker

59'▲L. Papirnyk←▼A. Lorimer

75'▲G. Robinson←▼H. Daniel

76'▲A. Jones←▼R. Beckwith

83'▲J. Itsindo←▼J. Norris

Wales U17 substitutes

12Wilson3Robinson6Walls14Papirnyk16Goulding17Itsindo19Jones20Jones