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Georgia U17 vs Slovenia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Georgia U17
Georgia U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Slovenia U17
Slovenia U17
10/9/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 1Stadion Gornja Radgona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia U1719%
×Draw20%
Slovenia U1761%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia U17
1.13
Slovenia U17
2.18

Slovenia U17 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Georgia U17
0.90
Slovenia U17
2.07

allows per match

Georgia U17
2.30
Slovenia U17
1.36

finishing

Georgia U17+0.00on par
Slovenia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U17 ↓

Slovenia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Georgia U17 or draw
39%
Georgia U17 or Slovenia U17
80%
Draw or Slovenia U17
81%

Winning margin

Georgia U17 wins by 2+
7%
Slovenia U17 wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Georgia U17 1+ goals
68%
Georgia U17 2+ goals
31%
Georgia U17 3+ goals
11%
Slovenia U17 1+ goals
89%
Slovenia U17 2+ goals
64%
Slovenia U17 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)
24%
Slovenia U17 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U17 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Slovenia U17 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U17 attack 0.90 + Slovenia U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Slovenia U17 attack 2.07 + Georgia U17 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Georgia U17 scores more
19%
level
20%
Slovenia U17 scores more
61%

Slovenia U17 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slovenia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Georgia U17 vs Slovenia U17

Slovenia U17 beat Georgia U17 2-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gornja Radgona in Gornja Radgona.