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Georgia U17 vs Serbia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Georgia U17
Georgia U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Serbia U17
Serbia U17
3/20/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Ramaz Shengelias Sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia U1716%
×Draw19%
Serbia U1765%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia U17
1.03
Serbia U17
2.27

Serbia U17 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Georgia U17
0.90
Serbia U17
2.25

allows per match

Georgia U17
2.30
Serbia U17
1.17

finishing

Georgia U17+0.00on par
Serbia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U17 ↓

Serbia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Georgia U17 or draw
35%
Georgia U17 or Serbia U17
81%
Draw or Serbia U17
84%

Winning margin

Georgia U17 wins by 2+
6%
Serbia U17 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Georgia U17 1+ goals
64%
Georgia U17 2+ goals
28%
Georgia U17 3+ goals
9%
Serbia U17 1+ goals
90%
Serbia U17 2+ goals
66%
Serbia U17 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)
20%
Serbia U17 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U17 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Serbia U17 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U17 attack 0.90 + Serbia U17 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Serbia U17 attack 2.25 + Georgia U17 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Georgia U17 scores more
16%
level
19%
Serbia U17 scores more
65%

Serbia U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Serbia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Georgia U17 0–2 Serbia U17

Serbia U17 beat Georgia U17 2-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ramaz Shengelias Sakhelobis Stadioni in Kutaisi.