Georgia U17 1–3 Israel U17: Result & Stats

Georgia U17

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Israel U17

10/25/2022

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Teknikuri Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Georgia U1716%

×Draw21%

Israel U1762%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U17Expected goals in this matchIsrael U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.94

Georgia U17

0.88

Israel U17

1.94

Israel U17 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

0.90

creates per match

1.57

2.30

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Georgia U17

0.90

Israel U17

1.57

allows per match

Georgia U17

2.30

Israel U17

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U17+0.00on par

Israel U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U17 ↓

Israel U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Georgia U17 or draw

38%

Georgia U17 or Israel U17

79%

Draw or Israel U17

84%

Winning margin

Georgia U17 wins by 2+

5%

Israel U17 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Georgia U17 1+ goals

59%

Georgia U17 2+ goals

22%

Georgia U17 3+ goals

6%

Israel U17 1+ goals

86%

Israel U17 2+ goals

58%

Israel U17 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)

21%

Israel U17 (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U17 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Israel U17 away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U17 attack 0.90 + Israel U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Israel U17 attack 1.57 + Georgia U17 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Georgia U17 scores more

16%

level

21%

Israel U17 scores more

62%

Israel U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Israel U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff