Georgia U17 1–2 Greece U17: Result & Stats

Georgia U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Greece U17

A. Bartishvili 49'

S. Papasarafianos 70'

K. Souvlatzis 56'

10/30/2025

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Georgia U1718%

×Draw21%

Greece U1760%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Georgia U17Expected goals in this matchGreece U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.00

Georgia U17

1.00

Greece U17

2.00

Greece U17 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

0.90

creates per match

1.70

2.30

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Georgia U17

0.90

Greece U17

1.70

allows per match

Georgia U17

2.30

Greece U17

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia U17+0.00on par

Greece U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia U17 ↓

Greece U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Georgia U17 or draw

40%

Georgia U17 or Greece U17

79%

Draw or Greece U17

82%

Winning margin

Georgia U17 wins by 2+

6%

Greece U17 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Georgia U17 1+ goals

63%

Georgia U17 2+ goals

26%

Georgia U17 3+ goals

8%

Greece U17 1+ goals

86%

Greece U17 2+ goals

59%

Greece U17 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Georgia U17 (draw refunded)

23%

Greece U17 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia U17 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Greece U17 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia U17 attack 0.90 + Greece U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Greece U17 attack 1.70 + Georgia U17 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Georgia U17 scores more

18%

level

21%

Greece U17 scores more

60%

Greece U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Greece U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

L. Sharikadze

49'

A. Bartishvili

53'

G. Kostoglou

56'

S. Papasarafianos← A. Moysiadis

56'

K. Souvlatzis

60'

S. Mikautadze← T. Kvaratskhelia

69'

A. Bartishvili

70'

S. Papasarafianos

71'

A. Getiashvili← I. Gogichaishvili

71'

A. Svanidze← G. Gorgadze

79'

G. Lagvilava← S. Sharvashidze

79'

I. Tsialis← K. Souvlatzis

79'

G. Kontrasi← G. Kostoglou

80'

A. Getiashvili

90+4'

K. Tounousidis

90+1'

Z. Petousis← K. Papadakis

90+1'

K. Tounousidis← K. Karangelis

Georgia

Greece

1

2

4

5

3

6

▼

Papadakis

8

▼

Moysiadis

7

Nempis

10

▼

Kostoglou

9

⚽

▼

Souvlatzi

11

▼

12

2

3

6

5

▼

Gogichais

10

▼

Gorgadze

8

▼

Sharvashi

17

Avdoevi

11

⚽

Bartishvi

19

Kuntchuli

7

▼

Kvaratskh

Manager: G. Chitauri

60'▲S. Mikautadze←▼T. Kvaratskhelia

71'▲A. Getiashvili←▼I. Gogichaishvili

71'▲A. Svanidze←▼G. Gorgadze

79'▲G. Lagvilava←▼S. Sharvashidze

Georgia U17 substitutes

1Tchelidze4Getiashvili9Mikautadze13Kiladze14Pilauri15Tsiramua16Vardania18Lagvilava20Svanidze

Manager: V. Papadakis

56'▲S. Papasarafianos←▼A. Moysiadis

79'▲I. Tsialis←▼K. Souvlatzis

79'▲G. Kontrasi←▼G. Kostoglou

90+1'▲Z. Petousis←▼K. Papadakis

90+1'▲K. Tounousidis←▼K. Karangelis

Greece U17 substitutes

12Sidirellis14Marios15Tsialis16Petousis17Kitos18Gkersos19Tounousidis20Papasarafianos21Kontrasi