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Geoje Citizen vs Yangpyeong — FA Cup 2019

Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yangpyeong
Yangpyeong
3/5/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundGeoje Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Geoje Citizen47%
×Draw21%
Yangpyeong33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geoje Citizen
2.20
Yangpyeong
1.83

Geoje Citizen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Geoje Citizen
2.00
Yangpyeong
2.00

allows per match

Geoje Citizen
1.67
Yangpyeong
2.40

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par
Yangpyeong+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Yangpyeong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw
67%
Geoje Citizen or Yangpyeong
79%
Draw or Yangpyeong
53%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
27%
Yangpyeong wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
89%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
64%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
37%
Yangpyeong 1+ goals
84%
Yangpyeong 2+ goals
54%
Yangpyeong 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
59%
Yangpyeong (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Yangpyeong away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.00 + Yangpyeong defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Yangpyeong attack 2.00 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more
47%
level
21%
Yangpyeong scores more
33%

Geoje Citizen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geoje Citizen vs Yangpyeong

Geoje Citizen beat Yangpyeong 2-0 in FA Cup on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Geoje Stadium in Geoje.