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Geoje Citizen vs Sejong SA — K4 League 2026

Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sejong SA
Sejong SA
6/20/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geoje Citizen51%
×Draw21%
Sejong SA28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geoje Citizen
2.08
Sejong SA
1.50

Geoje Citizen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Geoje Citizen
2.29
Sejong SA
1.14

allows per match

Geoje Citizen
1.86
Sejong SA
1.86

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par
Sejong SA+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Sejong SA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw
72%
Geoje Citizen or Sejong SA
79%
Draw or Sejong SA
49%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
30%
Sejong SA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
87%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
61%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
34%
Sejong SA 1+ goals
78%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
44%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
65%
Sejong SA (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Sejong SA away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Sejong SA defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sejong SA attack 1.14 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more
51%
level
21%
Sejong SA scores more
28%

Geoje Citizen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Geoje Citizen 1–2 Sejong SA

Sejong SA beat Geoje Citizen 2-1 in K4 League on June 20, 2026.