Geoje Citizen vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Geoje Citizen

Preview

08:00

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

9/5/2026

K4 League · Round 21

45%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

model favours

34%22%45%

1–1

likely score

71%

over 2.5 goals

71%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geoje Citizen34%

×Draw22%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geoje CitizenExpected goals in this matchJungnang Chorus Mustang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.00

Geoje Citizen

1.71

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.00

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.29

creates per match

2.14

1.86

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Geoje Citizen

2.29

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.14

allows per match

Geoje Citizen

1.86

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw

55%

Geoje Citizen or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

78%

Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

66%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+

17%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals

82%

Geoje Citizen 2+ goals

51%

Geoje Citizen 3+ goals

24%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

86%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

59%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)

43%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.14 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more

34%

level

22%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

45%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Citizen

LWWLL

Mustang

WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff