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Geoje Citizen vs Jecheon Citizen — K4 League 2026

Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
FT
2 – 3
Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
4/18/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geoje Citizen42%
×Draw24%
Jecheon Citizen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geoje Citizen
1.65
Jecheon Citizen
1.49

Geoje Citizen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Geoje Citizen
2.29
Jecheon Citizen
1.11

allows per match

Geoje Citizen
1.86
Jecheon Citizen
1.00

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par
Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Jecheon Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw
65%
Geoje Citizen or Jecheon Citizen
76%
Draw or Jecheon Citizen
58%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
21%
Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
81%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
49%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
23%
Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
77%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
44%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
54%
Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Jecheon Citizen away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.11 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more
42%
level
24%
Jecheon Citizen scores more
35%

Geoje Citizen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geoje Citizen vs Jecheon Citizen

Jecheon Citizen beat Geoje Citizen 3-2 in K4 League on April 18, 2026.