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Geoje Citizen vs Haman — K4 League 2026

Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
Preview
08:00
Haman
Haman
8/23/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 19
47%
Geoje Citizen
model favours
47%23%31%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geoje Citizen47%
×Draw23%
Haman31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geoje Citizen
1.81
Haman
1.43

Geoje Citizen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Geoje Citizen
2.29
Haman
1.00

allows per match

Geoje Citizen
1.86
Haman
1.33

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par
Haman+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Haman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw
69%
Geoje Citizen or Haman
77%
Draw or Haman
53%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
25%
Haman wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
84%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
54%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
27%
Haman 1+ goals
76%
Haman 2+ goals
42%
Haman 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
60%
Haman (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Haman away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Haman defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Haman attack 1.00 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more
47%
level
23%
Haman scores more
31%

Geoje Citizen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Citizen
LWWLL
Haman
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Geoje Citizen vs Haman — Match Preview

Geoje Citizen face Haman on August 23, 2026 in this K4 League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.