Geoje Citizen vs Geumsan Insam

Geoje Citizen

Preview

05:00

Geumsan Insam

11/8/2026

K4 League · Round 26

40%

Geumsan Insam

model favours

39%22%40%

1–1

likely score

72%

over 2.5 goals

71%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geoje Citizen39%

×Draw22%

Geumsan Insam40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geoje CitizenExpected goals in this matchGeumsan Insam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.88

Geoje Citizen

1.86

Geumsan Insam

1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.29

creates per match

1.89

1.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Geoje Citizen

2.29

Geumsan Insam

1.89

allows per match

Geoje Citizen

1.86

Geumsan Insam

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Geumsan Insam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw

60%

Geoje Citizen or Geumsan Insam

78%

Draw or Geumsan Insam

61%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+

20%

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals

84%

Geoje Citizen 2+ goals

55%

Geoje Citizen 3+ goals

28%

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals

85%

Geumsan Insam 2+ goals

56%

Geumsan Insam 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)

50%

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.86

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more

39%

level

22%

Geumsan Insam scores more

40%

Geumsan Insam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Citizen

LWWLL

Insam

WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff