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Gent W vs Standard Liege W — Super League Women 2018

Gent W
Gent W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Standard Liege W
Standard Liege W
10/11/2025Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 6Sportpark Molenkouter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Gent W36%
×Draw23%
Standard Liege W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent W
1.58
Standard Liege W
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 103 away

creates per match

Gent W
1.75
Standard Liege W
1.76

allows per match

Gent W
1.59
Standard Liege W
1.41

finishing

Gent W+0.00on par
Standard Liege W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent W ↓

Standard Liege W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gent W or draw
60%
Gent W or Standard Liege W
77%
Draw or Standard Liege W
64%

Winning margin

Gent W wins by 2+
18%
Standard Liege W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gent W 1+ goals
79%
Gent W 2+ goals
47%
Gent W 3+ goals
21%
Standard Liege W 1+ goals
81%
Standard Liege W 2+ goals
50%
Standard Liege W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gent W (draw refunded)
47%
Standard Liege W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.59 · 101 matches

Standard Liege W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent W attack 1.75 + Standard Liege W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Standard Liege W attack 1.76 + Gent W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gent W scores more
36%
level
23%
Standard Liege W scores more
40%

Standard Liege W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gent W vs Standard Liege W

Standard Liege W beat Gent W 2-1 in Super League Women on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenkouter in Merelbeke.