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Gent W vs Club Brugge W — Super League Women 2018

Gent W
Gent W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Club Brugge W
Club Brugge W
3/28/2025Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 21Chillax Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Gent W43%
×Draw23%
Club Brugge W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent W
1.77
Club Brugge W
1.55

Gent W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 88 away

creates per match

Gent W
1.75
Club Brugge W
1.51

allows per match

Gent W
1.59
Club Brugge W
1.78

finishing

Gent W+0.00on par
Club Brugge W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent W ↓

Club Brugge W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gent W or draw
66%
Gent W or Club Brugge W
77%
Draw or Club Brugge W
57%

Winning margin

Gent W wins by 2+
23%
Club Brugge W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gent W 1+ goals
83%
Gent W 2+ goals
53%
Gent W 3+ goals
26%
Club Brugge W 1+ goals
79%
Club Brugge W 2+ goals
46%
Club Brugge W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gent W (draw refunded)
56%
Club Brugge W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.59 · 101 matches

Club Brugge W away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent W attack 1.75 + Club Brugge W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Club Brugge W attack 1.51 + Gent W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gent W scores more
43%
level
23%
Club Brugge W scores more
34%

Gent W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gent W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gent W vs Club Brugge W

Club Brugge W beat Gent W 1-0 in Super League Women on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Chillax Arena in Oostakker.