Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gent vs Zorya Luhansk — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Gent
Gent
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
11/30/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gent73%
×Draw17%
Zorya Luhansk10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
2.38
Zorya Luhansk
0.75

Gent creates 217% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gent
2.32
Zorya Luhansk
0.86

allows per match

Gent
0.64
Zorya Luhansk
2.43

finishing

Gent+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gent or draw
90%
Gent or Zorya Luhansk
83%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
27%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
50%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
91%
Gent 2+ goals
68%
Gent 3+ goals
42%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
53%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
17%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
88%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.64 · 25 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 2.32 + Zorya Luhansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.38

Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 + Gent defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gent scores more
73%
level
17%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
10%

Gent at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Gent 4–1 Zorya Luhansk

Gent beat Zorya Luhansk 4-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Planet Group Arena in Gent.