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Gent vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Gent
Gent
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
11/10/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 14Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gent41%
×Draw26%
Standard Liege32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
1.40
Standard Liege
1.21

Gent creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gent
1.31
Standard Liege
1.05

allows per match

Gent
1.36
Standard Liege
1.49

finishing

Gent+0.07on par
Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gent or draw
68%
Gent or Standard Liege
74%
Draw or Standard Liege
59%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
19%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
75%
Gent 2+ goals
41%
Gent 3+ goals
17%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
70%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
34%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
56%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.31 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + Gent defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gent scores more
41%
level
26%
Standard Liege scores more
32%

Gent at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gent vs Standard Liege

Gent beat Standard Liege 5-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Planet Group Arena in Gent.