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Gent vs SK Beveren — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Gent
Gent
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SK Beveren
SK Beveren
Unknown 90'
M. Dean 90'
J. Vergara 90'
W. Kanga 45'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gent42%
×Draw21%
SK Beveren38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
2.12
SK Beveren
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Gent
1.82
SK Beveren
2.50

allows per match

Gent
1.55
SK Beveren
2.42

finishing

Gent+0.00on par
SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

SK Beveren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Gent or draw
62%
Gent or SK Beveren
79%
Draw or SK Beveren
58%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
23%
SK Beveren wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
88%
Gent 2+ goals
62%
Gent 3+ goals
35%
SK Beveren 1+ goals
87%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
60%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
52%
SK Beveren (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.82 + SK Beveren defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.12

SK Beveren attack 2.50 + Gent defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gent scores more
42%
level
21%
SK Beveren scores more
38%

Gent at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
W. Kanga
90'
90'
M. Dean
90'
J. Vergara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Gent 4–0 SK Beveren

Gent beat SK Beveren 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: W. Kanga (45'), ? (90'), M. Dean (90'), J. Vergara (90').