Gent 4–1 SK Beveren: Result & Stats

Gent

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SK Beveren

Jonathan Christian David 90', 83'

Birger Verstraete 77' (pen)

Roman Yaremchuk 36'

Aleksandar Vukotić 82'

8/12/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 3Ghelamco Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gent53%

×Draw23%

SK Beveren23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GentExpected goals in this matchSK Beveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.12

Gent

1.81

SK Beveren

1.12

Gent creates 62% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 50 away

1.83

creates per match

1.08

1.16

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Gent

1.83

SK Beveren

1.08

allows per match

Gent

1.16

SK Beveren

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gent+0.00on par

SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

SK Beveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gent or draw

77%

Gent or SK Beveren

77%

Draw or SK Beveren

47%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+

30%

SK Beveren wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals

84%

Gent 2+ goals

54%

Gent 3+ goals

27%

SK Beveren 1+ goals

67%

SK Beveren 2+ goals

31%

SK Beveren 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)

69%

SK Beveren (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.16 · 156 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.80 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.83 + SK Beveren defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

SK Beveren attack 1.08 + Gent defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gent scores more

53%

level

23%

SK Beveren scores more

23%

Gent at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Nana Asare

36'

Roman Yaremchuk

46'

Daam Foulon← Beni Badibanga

61'

Mouhamadou Ndao← Francesco Forte

66'

Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe← Brecht Dejaegere

71'

Jonathan Christian David← Taiwo Awoniyi

72'

Din Sula← Floriano Vanzo

74'

Louis Verstraete

76'

Aleksandar Vukotić

77'

Birger VerstraetePenalty

81'

Thibault De Smet← Nana Asare

82'

Aleksandar Vukotić↳ Aleksandar Boljevic

83'

Jonathan Christian David↳ Stallone Limbombe

90'

Jonathan Christian David↳ Thomas Foket

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GentSK

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots17

11Corners3

12Fouls6

Shots

19Total Shots17

11On Target7

8Off Target10

Passing

61%Possession39%

Goalkeeping

6Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1