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Gent vs RWDM — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Gent
Gent
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
RWDM
RWDM
12/9/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 17Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gent59%
×Draw21%
RWDM20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
2.04
RWDM
1.10

Gent creates 85% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gent
1.83
RWDM
1.05

allows per match

Gent
1.16
RWDM
2.26

finishing

Gent+0.00on par
RWDM+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

RWDM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gent or draw
80%
Gent or RWDM
79%
Draw or RWDM
41%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
36%
RWDM wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
87%
Gent 2+ goals
60%
Gent 3+ goals
33%
RWDM 1+ goals
67%
RWDM 2+ goals
30%
RWDM 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
75%
RWDM (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.16 · 156 matches

RWDM away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.83 + RWDM defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.04

RWDM attack 1.05 + Gent defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gent scores more
59%
level
21%
RWDM scores more
20%

Gent at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gent vs RWDM

Gent beat RWDM 4-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Planet Group Arena in Gent.