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Gent vs Oleksandria — UEFA Europa League 2026

Gent
Gent
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
L. Depoitre 16', 7'
D. Miroshnichenko 54'
12/12/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6GHELAMCO-arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gent50%
×Draw22%
Oleksandria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
2.00
Oleksandria
1.45

Gent creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gent
2.00
Oleksandria
1.00

allows per match

Gent
1.90
Oleksandria
2.00

finishing

Gent+0.00on par
Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gent or draw
72%
Gent or Oleksandria
78%
Draw or Oleksandria
50%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
29%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
86%
Gent 2+ goals
59%
Gent 3+ goals
32%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
77%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
42%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
64%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 2.00 + Oleksandria defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Oleksandria attack 1.00 + Gent defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gent scores more
50%
level
22%
Oleksandria scores more
28%

Gent at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
L. DepoitreGentGent · F
8.8

Match Events

7'
L. Depoitre↳ R. Bezus
16'
L. Depoitre↳ R. Bezus
46'
O. Dovgyi← A. Zaporozhan
54'
D. Miroshnichenko↳ D. Bezborodko
70'
Alessio Castro-Montes
73'
G. Chakvetadze← R. Yaremchuk
79'
Kyrylo Kovalets
79'
M. Zaderaka← M. Tretyakov
80'
J. Dompé← R. Bezus
86'
João Teixeira← D. Bezborodko
90'
Sven Kums
90+3'
G. Kvilitaia← L. Depoitre

Possession

Gent: 51Oleksandria: 4951%Gent

Shots

Gent: 12Oleksandria: 1412Gent

Pass accuracy

Gent: 79Oleksandria: 7751%Gent

Statistics

GentOleksandria
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots14
3Corners13
7Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots14
7On Target2
4Off Target6
1Blocked6
9Inside Box7
3Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
468Total Passes415
371Accurate Passes320
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Gent vs Oleksandria

Gent beat Oleksandria 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on December 12, 2019.

Goals: L. Depoitre (7', 16'), D. Miroshnichenko (54').

Gent controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at GHELAMCO-arena in Gent.