Gent 2–0 Maccabi Tel Aviv: Result & Stats

Gent

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Tel Aviv

10/5/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gent47%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Tel Aviv28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GentExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Tel Aviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Gent

1.56

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.14

Gent creates 37% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

2.32

creates per match

1.63

0.64

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Gent

2.32

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.63

allows per match

Gent

0.64

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gent+0.00on par

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Maccabi Tel Aviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gent or draw

72%

Gent or Maccabi Tel Aviv

75%

Draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv

53%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+

24%

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals

79%

Gent 2+ goals

46%

Gent 3+ goals

21%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

68%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

32%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)

63%

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.64 · 25 matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 2.32 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.63 + Gent defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gent scores more

47%

level

25%

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

28%

Gent at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff