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Gent vs Maccabi Haifa — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Gent
Gent
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
2/21/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsKAA Gent Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gent62%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Haifa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
1.86
Maccabi Haifa
0.82

Gent creates 127% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 10 away

creates per match

Gent
2.32
Maccabi Haifa
1.00

allows per match

Gent
0.64
Maccabi Haifa
1.40

finishing

Gent+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gent or draw
84%
Gent or Maccabi Haifa
78%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
38%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
36%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
84%
Gent 2+ goals
55%
Gent 3+ goals
28%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
56%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
20%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
79%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.64 · 25 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 2.32 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.00 + Gent defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gent scores more
62%
level
22%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
16%

Gent at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gent vs Maccabi Haifa

Gent and Maccabi Haifa drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at KAA Gent Arena in Gent.