Gent 2–1 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

Gent

2 – 1

CFR 1907 Cluj

1/12/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Oliva Nova Golf & Beach Resort Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gent31%

×Draw23%

CFR 1907 Cluj46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GentExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.77

Gent

1.41

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.77

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.82

creates per match

2.00

1.55

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gent

1.82

CFR 1907 Cluj

2.00

allows per match

Gent

1.55

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gent+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Gent or draw

54%

Gent or CFR 1907 Cluj

77%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

69%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+

14%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals

76%

Gent 2+ goals

41%

Gent 3+ goals

17%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

83%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

53%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)

40%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.82 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 2.00 + Gent defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gent scores more

31%

level

23%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

46%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff