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Gent vs Breidablik — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Gent
Gent
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Breidablik
Breidablik
10/26/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gent70%
×Draw18%
Breidablik12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
2.25
Breidablik
0.82

Gent creates 174% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gent
2.32
Breidablik
1.00

allows per match

Gent
0.64
Breidablik
2.19

finishing

Gent+0.00on par
Breidablik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Breidablik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gent or draw
88%
Gent or Breidablik
82%
Draw or Breidablik
30%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
46%
Breidablik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
89%
Gent 2+ goals
65%
Gent 3+ goals
39%
Breidablik 1+ goals
56%
Breidablik 2+ goals
20%
Breidablik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
85%
Breidablik (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.64 · 25 matches

Breidablik away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 2.32 + Breidablik defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.25

Breidablik attack 1.00 + Gent defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Gent scores more
70%
level
18%
Breidablik scores more
12%

Gent at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Gent 5–0 Breidablik

Gent beat Breidablik 5-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Planet Group Arena in Gent.