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Gent vs Beerschot VA — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Gent
Gent
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
M. Samoise 79'
L. Depoitre 61', 29'
R. Yaremchuk 15', 12'
I. Coulibaly 90+1'
10/4/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 8GHELAMCO-arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Gent50%
×Draw25%
Beerschot VA25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
1.61
Beerschot VA
1.06

Gent creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gent
1.31
Beerschot VA
0.77

allows per match

Gent
1.36
Beerschot VA
1.91

finishing

Gent+0.07on par
Beerschot VA+0.09on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gent or draw
75%
Gent or Beerschot VA
75%
Draw or Beerschot VA
50%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
26%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
80%
Gent 2+ goals
48%
Gent 3+ goals
22%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
65%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
29%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
67%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.31 + Beerschot VA defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Beerschot VA attack 0.77 + Gent defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gent scores more
50%
level
25%
Beerschot VA scores more
25%

Gent at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
R. Yaremchuk↳ L. Depoitre
15'
R. Yaremchuk↳ O. Bukari
29'
L. Depoitre
46'
L. Brogno← D. Van den Buijs
51'
Sulayman Marreh
61'
L. Depoitre↳ O. Bukari
62'
G. Chakvetadze← A. Niangbo
66'
M. Noubissi← R. Holzhauser
74'
M. Samoise← O. Bukari
78'
Joren Dom
78'
T. Kleindienst← R. Yaremchuk
79'
A. Sanyang← T. Tissoudali
79'
M. Samoise↳ M. Mohammadi
90+1'
I. Coulibaly

Statistics

GentBeerschot
Overview
6Corners5
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Gent vs Beerschot VA

Gent beat Beerschot VA 5-1 in Jupiler Pro League on October 4, 2020.

Goals: R. Yaremchuk (12', 15'), L. Depoitre (29', 61'), M. Samoise (79'), I. Coulibaly (90+1').

The match was played at GHELAMCO-arena in Gent.