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Beerschot VA vs Gent — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gent
Gent
11/3/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 13Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beerschot VA32%
×Draw24%
Gent44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.35
Gent
1.62

Gent creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 155 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.36
Gent
1.50

allows per match

Beerschot VA
1.74
Gent
1.35

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
Gent+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Gent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
56%
Beerschot VA or Gent
76%
Draw or Gent
68%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
14%
Gent wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
74%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
39%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
15%
Gent 1+ goals
80%
Gent 2+ goals
48%
Gent 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
42%
Gent (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Gent away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.35 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.36 + Gent defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gent attack 1.50 + Beerschot VA defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
32%
level
24%
Gent scores more
44%

Gent at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beerschot VA vs Gent

Beerschot VA and Gent drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Olympisch Stadion in Anvers.