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Gent vs AS Eupen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Gent
Gent
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
9/24/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 8Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gent57%
×Draw22%
AS Eupen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
1.90
AS Eupen
1.06

Gent creates 79% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 99 away

creates per match

Gent
1.83
AS Eupen
0.96

allows per match

Gent
1.16
AS Eupen
1.97

finishing

Gent+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gent or draw
79%
Gent or AS Eupen
78%
Draw or AS Eupen
43%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
33%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
85%
Gent 2+ goals
56%
Gent 3+ goals
29%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
65%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
29%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
73%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.16 · 156 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.83 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Gent defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gent scores more
57%
level
22%
AS Eupen scores more
21%

Gent at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gent 2 – 1 AS Eupen

Gent beat AS Eupen 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Planet Group Arena in Gent.