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Génova vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Génova
Génova
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
10/31/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Camp de Futbol Génova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Génova43%
×Draw23%
Ferriolense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Génova
1.71
Ferriolense
1.48

Génova creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Génova
1.47
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Génova
1.93
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Génova+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génova ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Génova or draw
67%
Génova or Ferriolense
77%
Draw or Ferriolense
57%

Winning margin

Génova wins by 2+
23%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Génova 1+ goals
82%
Génova 2+ goals
51%
Génova 3+ goals
24%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
77%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
43%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Génova (draw refunded)
56%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génova at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génova attack 1.47 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Génova defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Génova scores more
43%
level
23%
Ferriolense scores more
33%

Génova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Génova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Génova vs Ferriolense

Génova beat Ferriolense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Génova in Palma de Mallorca.