Genolier-Begnins 1–7 Bulle: Result & Stats

Genolier-Begnins

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

Bulle

8/15/2021

Schweizer Cup · 1st RoundStade des Gravières

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Genolier-Begnins3%

×Draw6%

Bulle92%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Genolier-BegninsExpected goals in this matchBulle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

4.17

Genolier-Begnins

0.67

Bulle

4.17

Bulle creates 522% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

4.67

3.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Genolier-Begnins

0.67

Bulle

4.67

allows per match

Genolier-Begnins

3.67

Bulle

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genolier-Begnins+0.00on par

Bulle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genolier-Begnins ↓

Bulle →

0–01%

0–14%

0–28%

0–311%

0–411%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Genolier-Begnins or draw

Genolier-Begnins or Bulle

94%

Draw or Bulle

97%

Winning margin

Genolier-Begnins wins by 2+

Bulle wins by 2+

79%

Team goals

Genolier-Begnins 1+ goals

49%

Genolier-Begnins 2+ goals

15%

Genolier-Begnins 3+ goals

Bulle 1+ goals

98%

Bulle 2+ goals

91%

Bulle 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Genolier-Begnins (draw refunded)

Bulle (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Genolier-Begnins at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Bulle away — creates 4.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Genolier-Begnins attack 0.67 + Bulle defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Bulle attack 4.67 + Genolier-Begnins defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 92%?"

Genolier-Begnins scores more

level

Bulle scores more

92%

Bulle at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff